Market Update

All index returns are total return (includes reinvestment of dividends) and are in Canadian Dollars unless noted. Sources: *Sources: MSCI, FTSE, TMX, S&P

The fourth quarter of 2025 ended what was a volatile year, however global equity markets continued to see solid performances.

Canadian stocks had a profitable quarter, as the S&P/TSX Composite Index saw an increase of 6.3% and an increase of 31.7% for the year. Meanwhile the S&P/TSX Small Cap saw a sizable increase of 10.7% for the quarter and 50.2% for the year.  The US stock market indexes also had a profitable quarter; the S&P500 increased increased 1.1% and 12.4% for the year.  The tech heavy Nasdaq Composite saw an increase of 1.5% in the quarter and 15.8% for the year.  Finally, the small cap Russell 2000 Index climbed 1.8% in the quarter and increased 10.6% for the year.

European, Australasia, and Far East stocks saw an increase of 4.2% for the quarter and 20.8% for the year.  Japan’s Stock Index increased 12.2% in Q4 and 28.7% for the year.  While emerging market stocks had a profitable quarter with the MSCI Emerging Markets Index gaining 1.0% and 27.1% for the year.

The Bank of Canada held rates steady in the quarter, The FTSE Canada Universe Bond Index was flat for the quarter at 0.3% and increased 2.6% for the year, while the FTSE Canada Short Term Bond Index was also flat for the quarter (0.3%), and up 3.9% for the year.

Meanwhile the Fed saw a marginal rate cut, The Bank of America (BoA) indexes, the ICE BoA AAA Corporate Index was down 1.6% for the quarter and up 1.3% for 2025. Lastly, ICE BoA BBB Corporate Index saw a decrease of 0.7% for the quarter and an increase of 3.0% for the year.

Looking at Real Estate, The S&P/TSX Capped REIT Index saw a decrease of 2.7% in Q4 and an increase of 10.1% for the year.

Lastly, Oil saw a decline in the quarter, down 8.0% and down 20% for the year.

Meanwhile, the diversified Bloomberg Commodities Index was up 5.4% in the quarter and up 14.8% for the year.

Portfolio Performance – Q4 2025

Performance of the ModernAdvisor portfolios were positive for the quarter and the year.

The high interest savings portfolio returned +0.5% in Q4 2025 and saw an increase of 2.5% for the year.

For more details about the performance of our portfolios, visit our website or see our portfolio factsheets here.

Disclosure:

The performance figures above are a time weighted composite of all accounts being managed to the stated risk level, and include ModernAdvisor management fees plus GST/HST, where applicable. Personal portfolio performance experience may vary. All returns are stated in Canadian dollar terms unless indicated otherwise.

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